Bolivian general election, 2014

Background

In April 2013, the Supreme Court ruled that the first term of President Evo Morales did not count towards constitutional term limits as the constitution of Bolivia had since been amended. On 20 May, Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera signed a bill into law in the presence of MPs, members of the armed forces and Movement for Socialism representatives. He said: "President Evo Morales is constitutionally permitted to run for re-election in 2015." This was despite Morales not having made an announcement to run. Unnamed opposition leaders said they would appeal the ruling in trying to overturn it.

Election schedule

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) said in November 2013 that it is considering holding the election in October 2014, so any second round of presidential voting could take place in December, the traditional month for presidential elections. The TSE formally convened the election for October 12, 2014. Registration for new voters opened May 10 and ran through June 9. Formal inter-party alliances needed to be finalized by July 14 to appear on the ballot. Campaign advertising was permitted only from September 12 to October 8. Bolivia observes limits on electoral activity in the days immediately preceding an election, and special restrictions on election day.

To win candidate needed either an absolute majority (more than 50%) of the vote or alternately, at least 40% of the vote with a 10% lead over the second-place candidate. If neither threshold is met, a run-off election will be held on December 7, 2014. In the case of an exact tie in elections for uninominal legislative seats, a district-wide run-off will occur on November 9.

Seats in the legislature

Election to the Plurinational Legislative Assembly is simultaneous with the presidential election. Senators and plurinominal deputies are awarded based on the party's vote in the presidential contest. Single-district (uninominal) deputies are chosen by a separate line on the ballot.

Each of Bolivia's nine departments has four Senators, which are assigned by proportional representation.

Seats in the Chamber of Deputies were reapportioned among Bolivia's nine departments according to the results of the 2012 national census. Plurinominal seats are elected by proportional representation in each department. Uninominal seats are elected by simple majority in each district. Indigenous or Campesino seats are chosen by the usos y costumbres of minority groups. Each candidate has an elected alternate of the same party. All candidate lists must alternate between men and women; in single-district votes, men must run with female alternates and vice versa. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal has promised to announce new district boundaries for uninominal seats by mid-April.

Parties and candidates

Five parties (including one party alliance) will contest the election at the presidential level.

Movement for Socialism

Sitting President Evo Morales Ayma and Vice President Álvaro García Linera are seeking re-election, following victories in 2005 and 2009. Their candidacy was endorsed by the Movement for Socialism – Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS-IPSP) at its 18th anniversary gathering in March 2013 and its Seventh General Congress in October 2013.

Without Fear Movement

The center-left Without Fear Movement (MSM) nominated party founder, and 2000–2010 Mayor of La Paz Juan del Granado as its candidate for president on November 11, 2013. Both the party and its candidate were allies with the first Evo Morales administration, and the MSM ran on a joint slate with the MAS-IPSP in the 2009 election, but the alliance ruptured shortly afterwards.

Democrat Unity Coalition

The largest opposition parties—the Democrats (MDS), National Unity Front (UN; convener of the Broad Front), and Without Fear Movement—held a variety of talks discussing possible alliances from late 2013 through June 2014. On June 17, the Democrats and National Unity announced the formation of the Democrat Unity Coalition (Spanish: Concertación Unidad Demócrata) whose candidates for president and vice president will be UN leader Samuel Doria Medina and Ernesto Suárez, respectively. Suárez is the former governor of Beni and leader of the Beni First party, which collaborated in the formation of the MDS.

Social Democrat Movement

Rubén Costas, governor of Santa Cruz department, founded the Social Democrat Movement to contest the 2014 elections. The party fuses Costas' Truth and Social Democracy (VERDES) party, Renewing Freedom and Democracy (Libertad y Democracia Renovadora; Líder), and Popular Consensus, although the merger is not legally recognized. Costas was chosen as the party's presidential nominee at its National Congress on December 15, 2013. However, the party entered into an alliance with the National Unity Front, which will present the latter group's leader Samuel Doria Medina as its candidate.

Broad Front

National Unity Front, the party led by Samuel Doria Medina, has named its alliance for 2014 the Broad Front (Spanish: Frente Amplio). Doria Medina, a presidential candidate in 2005 and 2009, the presumed candidate for the Front for months. On December 23, 2013, the Broad Front and the Revolutionary Nationalist Movement (MNR) signed an agreement to present a common candidate, to be selected by an internal primary election. Leaders of both parties say they are seeking a coalition with the Democrats and the Without Fear Movement.

On April 19–20, 2014, the Broad Front held a poll of its members in the nine departmental capitals of Bolivia. Doria Medina received a majority of 69% among the 2,652 people polled, making him the party's official presidential candidate. Other candidates participating were: indigenous leader Rafael Quispe of CONAMAQ, political scientist Jimena Costa and MNR faction leader Erick Morón. While the party declined to officially announce the vote totals received by other contenders, the newspaper La Razón reported that Costa received 14%, Quispe 10%, and Morón 6%.

Christian Democratic Party

Former president Jorge Fernando "Tuto" Quiroga Ramírez is the candidate of the Christian Democratic Party, which had recently been part of the PODEMOS opposition front. His running mate is Tomasa Yarhui, a lawyer and former Minister of Campesino Affairs.

Green Party

The Green Party, led by Margot Soria Saravia and affiliated with the Global Greens, sealed an alliance with the National Council of Ayllus and Markas of Qullasuyu (CONAMAQ) to campaign jointly for the 2014 elections. CONAMAQ leader Rafael Quispe had considered heading the ticket, but he publicly stated that his organization's goal is not to win the presidency but to gain independent representation in the Plurinational Assembly: "God willing I am wrong, but I don't think that we will arrive to power yet in 2014, as we have discussed [among ourselves]. We could put in assembly members and those assembly members will have to work for a Plurinational State and in [the] 2019 [elections] we would arrive in power to transform the Colonial State into a Plurinational State." The Confederation of Indigenous Peoples of Bolivia separately committed to contest the elections in alliance with CONAMAQ, and independently of the MAS and other major parties (Without Fear, National Unity, or Social Democrat).

On June 26, the Green Party finalized its candidates: Fernando Vargas, leader of the indigenous communities of the Isiboro Sécure National Park and Indigenous Territory will run for the presidency, with Margot Soria Saravia as vice presidential candidate.

Other alliances among parties

Official alliances between parties allow for joint candidates and ballot lines. These must be finalized by the July 14 deadline for candidacies. Aside from the Democrat Unity Coalition, other political forces engaged in alliance talks.

The largest opposition parties—the Democrats (MDS), National Unity Front (UN; convener of the Broad Front), and Without Fear Movement—held a variety of talks discussing possible alliances from late 2013 through June 2014. In the end, the Democrats and National Unity were able to reach an agreement, while the Without Fear Movement remained separate.

Seven smaller parties—Revolutionary Nationalist Movement, Nationalist Democratic Action, New Republican Force, Civic Solidarity Union, Front for Victory, Andean Amazonic Power, and Colla Power—reported progress towards a common alliance on June 18. The bloc would be called United for Bolivia (Unidos por Bolivia), and a congressional deputy involved in alliance talks promised it would be finalized on June 25. Several of these parties—Nationalist Democratic Action, New Republican Force, the faction of the Revolutionary Nationalist Movement led by Johnny Torres, as well the Revolutionary Left Movement (MIR), Bolivian Socialist Falange (FSB), and New Citizen Power (NPC)—threw their support behind the Christian Democrats and candidate Jorge Tuto Quiroga.

Eligible parties

As of November 2013, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal deemed twelve political parties eligible to participate in the election at a national level:

Eleven further applications were still being considered as of November 9, 2013.

Energy policy

The incumbent MAS-IPSP has proposed building a nuclear power plant, while the opposition Christian Democrats and Without Fear Movement oppose the development of nuclear energy. The Christian Democrats describe the move as dangerous and likely to generate international opposition, while the Without Fear Movement describes a power plant as a megaproject "that will leave nothing for the people."

Opinion polls

An unnamed poll in April 2013 suggested in an hypothetical race Morales would get 41% and Samuel Doria Medina would get 17% of the vote. A poll conducted by Página Siete in February 2014 showed Morales would get 45.7% of the vote, Medina would get 13.4%, Rubén Costas would get 9%, and Juan del Granado would get 4%. According to poll conducted by Ipsos in August 2014 Evo Morales would get 59% and Samuel Doria Medina would get 17% of the vote.