Belarusian presidential election, 2010

Historical background

During protests in the aftermath of the 2004 referendum and simultaneous 2004 parliamentary election, there were several arrests of protesters against the election and referendum results and reports of opposition candidates being beaten by police. More demonstrators were arrested during further protests in the aftermath of the 2006 presidential election, the so-called "Jeans Revolution". During Lukashenko's presidency Belarus has never held a poll seen as fair by Western monitors.

The new constitution, enacted in 1994, has been amended twice: the first amendment – in 1996 – increased the power of the presidency and established a bicameral parliament. In 2004, the two-term presidential limit was abolished. According to the OSCE, the executive branch of the Belarusian government has significant authority over the other branches; though Article 6 of the constitution of Belarus includes the principle of separation of powers. It has also stated that the Belarusian political system is composed of weak political party structures with no opposition deputies in the previous parliament.

Presidential candidates

The election was called by the House of Representatives on 14 September.

Lukashenko

President Alexander Lukashenko (who had been serving his third term), when addressing the press in February 2007, stated that his health permitting, he would run in 2011. According to the result of a referendum in 2004, Lukashenko was declared the first President of Belarus and therefore had no term limits. On May 4, 2010, in an interview with Reuters, he stated: "I have not yet decided whether I will run [...] There are no factors now that would force me to refuse to participate".

Official registration information

Alaksandar Milinkievič, of the "For Freedom" movement (Руху "За Свабоду"), initially announced his bid, but canceled it in September.

Campaign

The run-up to the campaign was marked by a series of Russian media attacks upon the incumbent Alexander Lukashenko. NTV television broadcast throughout July a multi-part documentary entitled 'The Godfather' highlighting the suspicious disappearance of a number of opposition leaders during the late 1990s, as well as highlighting a statement Lukashenko had made seemingly praising Adolf Hitler. Lukashenko referred to the media attack as "dirty propaganda".

Campaigning officially began on November 19, with candidates holding one-to-one meetings across the country and beginning their TV and Radio broadcasts via Belarusian state media. Every candidate was entitled to make two 30-minute broadcasts on Belarusian TV and Radio until 4 December, and could take part in a live media debate.

Opinion polls

The Central Election Commission said that all nine opposition figures were likely to get less than half the vote total incumbent Lukashenko would get. No independent verification of the government polls were allowed.

Death of Aleh Byabenin (Oleg Bebenin)

In the first week of September 2010, candidate Andrej Sannikaŭ's campaign press secretary Aleh Byabenin (Oleg Bebenin) was found hanged. Byabenin had been a key member of Sannikaŭ's campaign, and was also director and co-founder of Charter97 – an opposition group and website and one of the few outlets for information on opposition candidates during the election. The official investigation ruled the death as suicide, but Sannikaŭ expressed suspicion; saying that Byabenin had been in good mental health, there was no suicide note, and there were unexplained injuries on the body.

Monitors

The Central Election Commission of Belarus (CEC) said it was ready to cooperate with the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in monitoring the election.

The CEC issued a warning to Uładzimier Niaklajeŭ's "Say the Truth!" movement for violating the Electoral Legislation when his organisation gathered signatures of ineligible constituents for "subscription lists."

On 15 December 2010, Andrej Sannikaŭ filed two legal complaint applications with the Central Election Commission, demanding they withdraw the registration of Alexander Lukashenko; and also remove Lidiya Yermoshyna – the chairperson of the CEC – from office. In both cases, Sannikaŭ cited that their positions were illegal. Yermoshyna was a member of Lukashenko's political team, compromising her neutrality; and was under international scrutiny for purportedly rigging the previous election. He also brought up that Lukashenko ignored his own guidelines on how much time presidential candidates were allowed to speak on television (two appearances for 30 minutes each). Lukashenko also had "propagandistic meetings" at places not included on the Minsk City Executive Committee list where meetings could be held – Lukashenko held a large event at the Palace of the Republic and funded it with the state budget against the rules. The complaints were ineffective.

Election

The Central Election Commission issued results for the election:

Protests and crackdown

A large protest rally was organized the evening after the December 19 election at October Square in the center of downtown Minsk. This square had historically been the site of large protests, such as the violent suppression of the Jeans Revolution that took place after the disputed 2006 presidential election. However, riot police had cordoned off the square before the event, and people instead gathered at the nearby Liberty Square. While walking to the rally with about a hundred other people, presidential candidates Uładzimier Niaklajeŭ and Mikoła Statkievič were attacked by armed men dressed in black. Niaklajeŭ was beaten to unconsciousness and hospitalized for head injuries. Statkievič later claimed they were attacked by Belarus special forces.

During the rally up to 40,000 people protested against Lukashenko, chanting, "Out!," "Long live Belarus!" and other such slogans. A group of protesters tried to storm a principal government building, smashing windows and doors before riot police pushed them back. Candidate Vital Rymašeŭski blamed "drunk provocateurs" for the violence. According to a protester, the demonstrators were largely peaceful and that it was a separate "group of people" who attacked the government building – suggesting also a provocation of force by Belarusian authorities.

According to a protest participant (who is also director of the Belarus Free Theatre), thousands of demonstrators were beaten by riot police, and the square was left spattered with blood. She stated she was forced into a prison van and made to lie face down, while prison guards threatened her with murder and rape if she moved. Andrej Sannikaŭ and his wife Iryna Khalip were among those attacked by police during the rally; and according to eyewitness statements gathered by Charter 97, Sannikaŭ was singled out from the crowd by the OMON for a beating: "Andrei was beaten by truncheons while he was lying. He was beaten on the head [...] all over the body. Andrei was lying and trying to protect himself with his arms. No one was allowed to come near him, so that people could not defend Sannikov."

Lukashenko criticised the protesters, accusing them of "banditry" and saying that "the vandals and hooligans lost their human face. They simply turned into beasts. You saw how our law-enforcers behaved. They stood firm and acted exclusively within the bounds of the law. They defended the country and people from barbarism and ruin. There will be no revolution or criminality in Belarus." He also added that he could not imagine what more he could have done to make the election more democratic.

Censorship, raids

Several websites of the opposition and opposition candidates were blocked or hacked. Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Google Talk, many email services and LiveJournal were also blocked. The headquarters of Charter97 was stormed by the State Security Committee of the Republic of Belarus (known by the Russian acronym "KGB") and all its staff were arrested. Its editor-in-chief Natalya Radina was briefly imprisoned on a charge of "organizing mass disorder". Radina was released in January 2011 on the condition that she leave Minsk; she fled to Moscow before receiving asylum in Lithuania, where she continues to manage Charter 97.

The offices of Polish-funded broadcasters Belsat TV and European Radio for Belarus had also been raided, while relatives of arrested prisoners were denied access to them.

Arrests

Up to 700 opposition activists, including 7 presidential candidates, were arrested in the post election crackdown. Furthermore, at least 25 journalists were arrested; a detained Russian press photographer went on hunger strike on December 21, 2010. According to a detainee, after being shipped to a detainment center after the protests, there were rows of men on every floor standing facing the walls with their hands behind their backs. Women were separated and moved to another floor. Guards made them spend the night standing with faces to the walls, and every detainee was forced to sign statements confessing to "taking part in an unsanctioned rally." 639 prisoners received immediate prison sentences of up to 15 days.

The presidential candidate Uładzimier Niaklajeŭ, who had been seriously beaten during the evening of the election day, was taken from hospital by men in civilian clothing who wrapped him in a blanket on his hospital bed and carried him away as his wife screamed. While journalist Iryna Khalip and her husband Andrej Sannikaŭ were on the way to a Minsk hospital to treat Sannikaŭ's injured legs, their car was intercepted by authorities while Khalip was giving a mobile phone interview to the Moscow radio station Ekho Moskvy - Echo of Moscow. Khalip screamed on air that they were being forcibly removed from their car, arrested, and further beaten. Both Khalip and Sannikaŭ were detained in a KGB facility in Minsk. Lukashenko later revealed that Khalip's phone was bugged. Grigory Kostusyev and Dźmitry Uss were re-summoned for further questions by the KGB after being initially released. Kostusyev responded to the state crackdown saying "the regime has shown its true essence. We've been thrown 10 years into the past."

The State Security Committee of the Republic of Belarus (KGB) charged the activists, while domestic human rights groups stated they could face up to 15 years in jail. Twenty of the leading opposition figures were facing charges of "organising or participating in a public order disturbance" which is punishable by up to 15 years in jail.

Aftermath

Lukashenko's chief election rivals were either intimidated (Jarasłaŭ Ramančuk) or sentenced to prison terms just long enough to ensure they will be unable to participate in the 2015 elections (Andrej Sannikaŭ, Mikoła Statkievič and Dzmitry Us). Opponent Uładzimier Niaklajeŭ is under house arrest for an unknown period of time. Candidate Ales Michalevič was released from detention on February 15, 2011; in a press conference on March 1, he accused the KGB of torturing him and other former candidates while he was in custody.

On February 17, a Belarus court sentenced an opposition activist to four years in jail for taking part in the post-election protests. On March 2, 2011, Alyaksandr Atroshchankau—a spokesman for candidate Sannikaŭ, and who had been working as a journalist for Delfi during the December protests—was sentenced to 4 years in prison for violating "Article 293" of the penal code ("organizing and taking part in a mass riot"). Atroshchankau and many others are listed as prisoners of conscience by Amnesty International.

Andrej Sannikaŭ was convicted of the charge of "organizing a mass protest" on May 14, 2011 and sentenced to five years in a high-security prison.

Reactions

The West generally denounced the election as fraudulent; the European Union renewed a travel ban effective January 31, 2011 – prohibiting Lukashenko and 156 of his associates from traveling to EU member countries – as a result of violent crackdowns of opposition supporters by Lukashenko's government forces following the election.

Lukashenko's inauguration ceremony of 22 January 2011 was boycotted by European Union ambassadors, while fellow CIS countries did not send officials higher than ambassadors. During this ceremony Lukashenko defended the legitimacy of his re-election and vowed that Belarus would never have its own version of the 2004 Ukrainian Orange Revolution and Georgia's 2003 Rose Revolution.

Analysis

Though opposition figures alleged intimidation and "dirty tricks" were being played, Al Jazeera reported that the election was seen as comparatively open as a result of desire to improve relations with both Europe at-large and the United States.

Political scientists and commentators said that Lukashenko's handling of opposition protests is seen as the result of the choice of his government to trade a foreign policy loss for a perceived domestic gain in regards to worse relations with the European Union in return for a stable internal political situation. However, this was seen as fragile, as dissidents remain active (up to 25% of the population), though dissident leaders are marginalised and left out of any meaningful cooperative mechanism thus strengthening their isolation and opposition to current ruling élite. Lukashenko's main achievement, effective state-building of Belarus, is seen as in possible danger because of the lack of consensus over a shared Belarusian national identity, one that is still divided between an older Soviet-base one, and supported by the government, versus a symbolic medieval-based one, advocated by the opposition.

New government

On December 28, 2010 Lukashenko appointed Mikhail Myasnikovich as Prime Minister to replace Sergei Sidorsky.