Girish Mahajan

Andalusian parliamentary election, 2012

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25 March 2012  2015 →
18 April 2004  23 April 2009
47 seats, 38.5%  56 seats, 48.4%
Registered  6,392,620 2.6%
23 April 2009  10 October 2000
Andalusian parliamentary election, 2012
Turnout  3,885,137 (60.8%) 11.9 pp

The 2012 Andalusian parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 25 March 2012, to elect the 9th Parliament of Andalusia, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with a regional election in Asturias.

Contents

Being a Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) stronghold for decades, the People's Party (PP) had scored a decisive win in the region in the November 2011 general election and was widely expected to come out on top for the first time in its history, with opinion polls suggesting it could win an absolute majority on its own. The election, however, came to be seen as the first major electoral test for the national Mariano Rajoy's government since coming to power in December 2011; Rajoy's policies of raising taxes and the passing of a new, harsher labour reform had triggered a general strike scheduled for 29 March. Incumbent President José Antonio Griñán chose not to held the election simultaneously with the 2011 general election—the first time since 1994 that both elections were not held at the same time.

Final results showed a surprising close race between the PP and the PSOE–A, the first emerging out on top but falling far short of an overall majority. In contrast, the PSOE–A held its own and retained 47 seats despite polls predicting a tougher defeat, allowing Griñán to remain in power through a coalition government with United Left (IULV–CA), which doubled its seat count from 6 to 12 and was placed in a "kingmaker" position.

Overview

The Parliament of Andalusia was the unicameral legislature of Andalusia at the time of the 2012 election. Legislative initiative for those areas of responsibility attributed to the regional government belonged to this chamber, which also had the attribution of granting or revoking confidence from the President of Andalusia.

The President had the ability to dissolve the chamber at any given time and call a snap election. Additionally, the Parliament's dissolution was automatically triggered if investiture attempts failed to elect a regional President within a two month-period from the first ballot.

Electoral system

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, with all residents over eighteen and in the full enjoyment of all political rights entitled to vote. Concurrently, residents meeting the previous criteria and not involved in any cause of ineligibility were eligible for the Parliament. Groups of electors were required to obtain the signatures of at least 1% of registered electors in a particular district in order to be able to field candidates.

All 109 Parliament seats were allocated to eight multi-member district—each constituency corresponding to a province—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation. Each district was entitled to an initial minimum of eight seats, with the remaining 45 seats allocated among the eight provinces in proportion to their populations on the condition that the number of seats in each district did not exceed two times those of any other. A threshold of 3% of valid votes—which included blank ballots—was applied, with parties not reaching the threshold not entitled to enter the seat distribution.

Background

Date

Several dates were considered for the election. Initially scheduled for 4 or 18 March, the result of the general election in November made it advisable for Griñán to push the date further away to the last Sunday of March, in order to push the legislature to the limit and distance himself from the November election.

This has been the first time since 1996 that an Andalusian parliamentary election has not been held concurrently with a Spanish general election, as then-PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero had chosen to hold the 2012 general election 4 months ahead of schedule, on 20 November 2011.

2011 general election

The 2011 general election resulted in a resounding victory for the opposition People's Party of Mariano Rajoy, which won in both seats and popular vote for the first time ever in this autonomous community since the Spanish transition to democracy. The PP won 1,985,612 votes (45.57%) and 33 seats to PSOE's 1,594,893 votes (36.60%) and 25 seats, after losing 800,000 votes and 11 seats from those won in 2008. United Left won 2 seats from Sevilla and Malaga and 8.27% of the share with 360,212 votes.

Results projections based on the results of the general election gave the People's Party an absolute majority with 58 seats (out of 109 up for election), with the PSOE in a distant second place with 43 seats. United Left would keep its 6 seats on the projections while UPyD could enter the Parliament with 2 seats. Had those results been confirmed, it would have meant the end of a 30-year-long hegemony of Socialist rule in the community: the party being in power since the creation of the Andalusian autonomous community.

Party vote

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures.

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Investiture vote

On 3 May 2012, as a result of the PSOE–IU coalition agreement, José Antonio Griñán was re-elected as regional President. One IU deputy, Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo, cast an invalid vote in protest for not being able to elect a candidate of his own party.

In July 2013, President Griñán announced he would resign after a successor for the office had been chosen from among his party. As regional minister Susana Díaz was the only person able to gather the required guarantees to stand in the primary election that was to held for such a purpose, she was unanimously proclaimed as the party's candidate for the Presidency of the Junta of Andalusia. As a result, on 5 September 2013 the Andalusian Parliament elected Díaz as Griñán's successor.

References

Andalusian parliamentary election, 2012 Wikipedia


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